Computers with 1,000 gigabytes of memory to hit shelves next year

Ted Cohen has a terabyte of computer storage in the kitchen of his home, which he uses to store songs downloaded from 6,000 CDs.

That's more storage than many computer users think they will ever need.

"We're running nine computers in the house," said the former senior vice president of digital development and distribution for EMI Music. "When it became apparent that we were ripping digital music to whatever computer was nearby, the solution was to network our drives so that we could basically rip to a central place." Is this obscure techie jargon or an indication of how much computer memory you'll need in the future?

The latter, experts say.

A "terabyte" of memory -- for the record, that's equivalent to 1,000 gigabytes -- is becoming the new gold standard in the personal-computing realm. To deal with new applications such as high-definition video and countless downloaded songs, chances are you may need a terabyte in the not-too-distant future.

How much is a terabyte in the real world? It's 33 30-gigabyte iPods, or up to 375 hours of programming on a Comcast DVR.

Remember those 3.5-inch floppy disks you once used to store Microsoft Word files? The largest ones hold about 1.44 megabytes, so you'd need about 694,444 of them to equal a terabyte.

"There is never any limit to how much storage you need," said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for the NPD Group, a consumer research firm based in Port Washington, N.Y. "Buy more than you think you will need, as much as you can afford." While Cohen admits that his family isn't the norm -- the family of three has 11 iPods -- many Americans are facing a similar quandary when it comes to storing, managing and backing up their digital files.

Even high-tech executives are unable to estimate exactly how much home disk storage the typical person needs over time.

"Whatever is predicted, I expect it to far exceed that," said Symantec Corp. chief financial officer James Beer while attending a technology conference in Vail earlier this month. "That trend (for more storage) is moving forward." Whether it's storing home movies or downloading feature films from the Web, video files will be the main driver of greater storage needs within the next five years, experts say. And storing high-definition video takes up more space than regular digital video, for instance.

"With HD DVDs you will be able to make copies to store on your home server, so anyone can access it in the house," said Cohen, managing partner of TAG Strategic and a pioneer in the digital music industry. "When you get to 20 to 30 movies, we're talking about a lot of storage." So far, the Los Angeles-based Cohen family is using 300 gigabytes on their terabyte drive.

Previously relegated to the business world, a terabyte of external, desktop storage hit the home consumer market last year. Seagate Technology's 1-terabyte Maxtor storage unit -- about the size of a shoebox -- sells for $800. It includes software to manage and back up files with the touch of a button.

Desktop computers with 1-terabyte hard drives built in are expected to hit store shelves sometime next year.

But without even realizing it, most of us are storing a few hundred gigabytes in various places. A typical Comcast DVR has an 80-gigabyte hard drive, which holds up to 30 hours of video. Memory cards for digital cameras and smartphones such as Blackberrys and Treos are approaching two gigabytes. And of course there's the iPod, which, in its largest video form, holds 60 gigabytes.

"Most people don't realize how much storage they already have," said Rob Pait, director of global consumer electronics for Seagate. "In my house we have five PCs, with three teenagers all using 250 to 500 gigabytes apiece. We have a 250-gigabyte DVR in the living room, and that's not enough; we have to erase programs. I have a 30-gigabyte iPod, then I have backup devices to allow me to safely and securely back up music and all things around me." September marks the 50th anniversary of hard-disk storage. Innovation of the hard disk has grown by leaps and bounds since IBM released the first storage drive on Sept. 4, 1956.

At a monthly charge of $32,000, that drive -- the RAMAC -- weighed about a ton and was as large as two refrigerators. It stored 5 megabytes of information.

"Now, when you buy a new PC, you're getting at least 80 gigabytes of information," said Craig Butler, product marketing manager for IBM's disk-storage products. "Aerial density -- the number of ones and zeros you can fit on a hard-disk drive -- has increased 10 million times in the past 50 years."

According to information- technology research firm IDC, the average amount of storage on desktop computers shipped last year was 109 gigabytes. This year, that number is expected to jump to 129 gigabytes, compared with an average of 29 gigabytes five years ago.

In 1996, the average PC had 1 gigabyte of storage space.

"The first content driver (for storage) was office applications; then music, photos and then video," said John Rydning, research manager for hard-disk drives for IDC. "Each of those gets to be a larger and larger file size, so the demand for storage capacity continues to grow. People accumulate files; they don't throw them away." On the business side, IBM last week unveiled the DS800 Turbo, with a maximum storage capacity of 320 terabytes and price tag of $213,400. That's enough to store all the contents of the Library of Congress -- eight times.

But the good thing about personal storage is that it's cheap and easy. Many desktop computers ship with 160 gigabytes of storage today, and you can double that with an external hard drive for another $100.

Advances in technology have made it easy for the average person to add an external drive by simply connecting it to your home computer or network using a USB port.

That setup can come in handy. Seagate's Pait, for instance, said a customer evacuating his home during Hurricane Katrina last year simply picked up his external drive because all of his personal information and family photos were stored on it.

Cohen said he paid $950 for his Lacie-branded external terabyte drive six months ago. The same drive retails for about $699 now, he said.

"We're almost at a tipping point," Cohen said. "Once the price is below $499, I really believe the idea of having a terabyte (will become more mainstream.)"

The amount of data floating around on each individual today likely equates to a terabyte, IBM's Butler said, but "you just don't know where it is." Although most of the information isn't in your possession, records of your banking and credit-card transactions are being stored somewhere, he said. That's in addition to data about your mortgage, credit score and Social Security benefits.

"If you get an MRI at a doctor's office, the doctor will keep those files," Butler said. "In the future, biometrics will generate more data on you. There's more data being kept on you by more agencies and in more detail. We need to have enough control over it -- because there's so much at stake. We have a right to know where it all is."